The Geopolitical Impacts of the U.S. Tight Oil Boom: Implications for OPEC and the U.S. Strategic Posture – Bipartisan Policy Center (video of panel discussion)
June 12, 2013 [ 1 hr. 12 min. ]
(Note that some of the items mentioned are already different such as the price difference between Brent and WTI.)
Ed Morse outlined three risks to the continued expansion of unconventional.
- Risk of environmental disaster similar to Paul Sankey concerns.
- Risk of plateau in unconventional production given the steep decline curves (note this is the first time I have heard Ed express concern over declines).
- Risk of a decline in crude prices. If price falls too low continued growth of production would end.
Paul Sankey has some very interesting comments concerning the risk from an environmental accident for the continued development of the US pipeline system for transport. Could prevent the continued growth in US unconventional energy supplies. (He probably wishes in hindsight he had never made his comments about how safe rail crude transport is since this proceeded the recent disaster in Canada.)
Katherine Spector commented on crude prices and some of the areas where future investment must be made given continued unconventional production growth. Her comments about the WTI versus Brent were out of date given the recent adjustment of these two bench marks.
One assumption by all the panel members was that US demand will continue its current decline trend. This week’s report takes a little different view at where future US demand may be trending.