2012 May 18

The Master Resource Report  2012-05-18

Mexico production & exports

The charts below update the situation of Mexico’s production and exports. (Source: Pemex)

Mexico’s 2012 first quarter production is down 23,000 b/d from 2011 levels of 2.57 mb/d.

Production so far is down 0.9% from last year’s average for the first quarter while exports are down 9.6% or 132,000 b/d for the quarter. This difference is the consequence of the declining production but more importantly the increasing domestic consumption as Pemex adds to its own refining capacity.

Mexico has slowed its production decline rate in the last few years but it is beginning to run ahead of the forecast export decline based on historic trends. This fits with the “Export Land Model” that Jeff Brown has developed.

Click image for larger view

Click image for larger view

In 2011 Mexico exported a daily average of 1.13 mb/d to the America region according Pemex’s data. In the first quarter of 2012 that volume had fallen by 13.4% to 981,000 b/d. Declines in Mexico’s exports almost exclusively come out of exports to the U.S. It is a good thing the U.S. is on verge of “Energy Independence”.