2011 March 11

The Master Resource Report  2011-03-11

Point – Counter Point on Peak Oil (page 1 )

U.S. oil products supplied before and after the recession. (page 1 )

2008 was not an aberration. (page 2 )

Aircraft efficiency & fuel cost. (page 2 )

Water & oil in North Dakota. (page 3 )

A new idea for pumped storage. (page 4 )

Is surplus capacity fictional?

“Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review, said the long-denied oil crunch is starting to bite. “We cling to the comfort blanket that spare capacity exists, but it is mostly fictional, or inoperable. If you take 2m bpd off the figure, the whole dynamic of global oil supply changes…” Of course Chris’s point put into even simpler terms is we have no idea what global spare capacity is but continue to act as if we do. Sounds like a dangerous policy.

The airlines are under more pressure from fuel cost.

“United Continental Holdings Inc. is scrapping plans to add flights this year, and says it will drop unprofitable routes because of rising fuel prices.” Doesn’t sound like lower ticket prices does it?

For a more optimistic view of the future of air travel take a look at this article in The Economist. They forecast fuel consumption improvements per seat mile as high as 71% by 2035. They also didn’t mention fuel supplies, the price of fuel or whether the passenger could pay the ticket price. But the artist illustrations are really cool though.

Pirates & oil – One more thing for the markets to worry about.

“Asian and Western shippers are weighing their options should sailors opt to heed a call from the International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF) to refuse to sail through “high risk” areas such as the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, the sources said.”

As the Master Resource Report indicated a few weeks ago there are several choke points in the global seaborne oil transport system that if squeezed could hurt more than Libya’s troubles. The next step will be when insurance rates rise enough to impact flows. Maybe then there will be a concerted effort to deal with the pirate problem.